Thursday’s session delivered the week’s defining moment in a single hour. Iranian missile and drone strikes on Kuwait and a US air base drove WTI back toward $91 and sent the dollar surging — then an Axios report confirmed Washington and Tehran had tentatively agreed to a 60-day ceasefire extension pending Trump’s approval. Oil reversed. The dollar collapsed. Equities ripped to fresh record highs. The speed of that reversal set the tone for everything the coming week will be measured against.
The weekend added a secondary geopolitical complication. Israel launched its broadest ground incursion into Lebanon in 25 years, crossing the Litani River as Hezbollah fired more than 300 projectiles at Israeli forces and northern Israel. Critically, Iran has demanded that any US-Iran peace deal include an end to the Lebanon conflict — effectively tying the two negotiations together. A two-hour Situation Room meeting at the White House on Friday produced no announcement, the latest mixed signal on deal prospects heading into the week.
The calendar is back-loaded. Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI is the lone top-tier US print before Wednesday, when ADP and ISM Services set the table for Friday’s jobs complex: NFP, average hourly earnings, and the unemployment rate all land at 12:30pm GMT on June 5 alongside Canada’s employment figures.
