Following a sharp multi-week selloff that dragged Bitcoin from above $100,000 to below $80,000, the recent price bounce has traders debating whether the Bitcoin bull market is truly back on track or if this is merely a bear market rally before the next macro leg higher.
Bitcoin’s Local Bottom or Bull Market Pause?
Bitcoin’s latest correction was deep enough to rattle confidence, but shallow enough to maintain macro trend structure. Price seems to have set a local bottom between $76K–$77K, and several reliable metrics are beginning to solidify the local lows and point towards further upside.
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is one of the most reliable sentiment gauges across Bitcoin cycles. As price fell, NUPL dropped into “Anxiety” territory, but following the rebound, NUPL has now reclaimed the “Belief” zone, a critical sentiment transition historically seen at macro higher lows.
The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple weighs BTC spending by both coin age and transaction size, and compares the data to a previous yearly average, giving insight into long term holder behavior. Current readings have reset to low levels, suggesting that large, aged coins are not being moved. This is a clear signal of conviction from smart money. Similar dynamics preceded major price rallies in both the 2016/17 and 2020/21 bull cycles.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Boost Bull Market
We’re also now seeing the Long Term Holder Supply beginning to climb. After profit-taking above $100K, long-term participants are now re-accumulating at lower levels. Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the foundation for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Signal Bull Market Cross
The Hash Ribbons Indicator has just completed a bullish crossover, where the short-term hash rate trend moves above the longer-term average. This signal has historically aligned with bottoms and trend reversals. Given that miner behavior tends to reflect profitability expectations, this cross suggests miners are now confident in higher prices ahead.
Bitcoin Bull Market Tied to Stocks
Despite bullish on-chain data, Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro liquidity trends and equity markets, particularly the S&P 500. As long as that correlation holds, BTC will be partially at the mercy of global monetary policy, risk sentiment, and liquidity flows. While rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any sharp reversal could cause renewed choppiness for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Bull Market Outlook
From a data-driven perspective, Bitcoin looks increasingly well-positioned for a sustained continuation of its bull cycle. On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of resilience for the Bitcoin bull market. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has shifted from “Anxiety” during the dip to the “Belief” zone after the rebound—a transition often seen at macro higher lows. Similarly, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple has reset to levels signaling conviction among long-term holders, echoing patterns before Bitcoin’s rallies in 2016/17 and 2020/21. These metrics point to structural strength, bolstered by long-term holders aggressively accumulating supply below $80,000.
Further supporting this, the Hash Ribbons indicator’s recent bullish crossover reflects growing miner confidence in Bitcoin’s profitability, a reliable sign of trend reversals historically. This accumulation phase suggests the Bitcoin bull market may be gearing up for a supply squeeze, a dynamic that has fueled parabolic moves before. The data collectively highlights resilience, not weakness, as long-term holders seize the dip as an opportunity. Yet, this strength hinges on more than just on-chain signals—external factors will play a critical role in what comes next.
However, macro conditions still warrant caution, as the Bitcoin bull market doesn’t operate in isolation. Bull markets take time to build momentum, often needing steady accumulation and favorable conditions to ignite the next leg higher. While the local bottom between $76K–$77K seems to hold, the path forward won’t likely feature vertical candles of peak euphoria yet. Bitcoin’s tie to the S&P 500 and global liquidity trends means volatility could emerge from shifts in monetary policy or risk sentiment.
For example, while rate cut expectations have lifted risk assets, an abrupt reversal—perhaps from inflation spikes or geopolitical shocks—could test Bitcoin’s stability. Thus, even with on-chain data signaling a robust setup, the next phase of the Bitcoin bull market will likely unfold in measured steps. Traders anticipating a return to six-figure prices will need patience as the market builds its foundation.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
