Data provided by TradingView shows that King Crypto has traded mainly between $94,000 and $95,000 over the past week, with neither bulls nor bears managing to gain the upper hand to drive the price action.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The pause in crypto prices comes as concerns around Trump’s trade war and tariffs have begun to subside. Many now realize that the early numbers were designed to get trading partners to the negotiating table, which has worked for most countries except for China.
While prices have stagnated, behind the scenes, speculative capital is entering the market at a feverish pace, with onchain analytics firm Glassnode reporting a surge in Bitcoin’s so-called “hot capital.”
#Bitcoin‘s Hot Capital (sum of coins moved in the last 24h + 1d–1w) reached $39.1B on 28 Apr – its highest since 10 Feb. This metric captures short-term holder activity and is a proxy for speculative capital entering the market: https://t.co/gxCGzWzEHW pic.twitter.com/hephgPEzTx
— glassnode (@glassnode) April 29, 2025
As shown in the X post above, Glassnode data indicates that the sum of tokens moving over the past week hit the highest level since early February, surging by more than 90% to almost $40 billion.
“Since 21 Apr, $BTC hot capital rose from $20.7B to $39.1B – an increase of $18.7B or +92%,” Glassnode said in a follow-up post. “This is one of the fastest upticks in short-term realized cap in recent months, signaling a surge in active capital turnover.”
Glassnode added that BTC hot capital hit a low of $17.5B on March 23, its lowest level since December, and over the past five weeks, it has added more than $21.5B, “suggesting a rapid shift from dormancy to speculation among newer market entrants.
However, despite the surge in hot capital, Glassnode says it’s too early to declare the return of a full-blown bull market, as overall network participation remains low.
“Signs of early FOMO are emerging, with the Hot Capital Share ticking higher and profitability metrics like Percent Supply in Profit (86%) and NUPL (0.53) expanding notably,” the firm wrote in its latest Market Pulse analysis. “However, while on-chain activity such as transfer volume and fees are recovering, daily active addresses remain suppressed, suggesting that full organic network engagement is still rebuilding.”
The report showed that futures open interest is rising, but funding rates have flipped to negative, a signal that short sellers have entered the market.
“This combination of elevated leverage, aggressive short positioning, and persistent taker demand creates a fragile but explosive setup,” Glassnode said. “Should the rally sustain, short squeezes could drive a volatile extension higher; conversely, if momentum stalls, the market could see amplified swings as both sides unwind.”
The report concluded by noting that while spot demand and ETF participation are materially improving, “the growing signs of FOMO and leveraged imbalance in futures suggest that volatility risks remain elevated in the short term.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $94,990, an increase of 1.62% on the 7-day chart.
Monero Surge Linked to Bitcoin Theft
Monero (XMR), a leading privacy token, was one of the top performers over the past week, spiking 43.5% on Sunday and into Monday.
XMR/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The sudden surge excited privacy fans, but their enthusiasm has since been tempered by onchain sleuth ZachXBT, who said the pump was likely due to a suspicious transfer involving 3,520 Bitcoin, valued at $330.7 million, that may indicate a significant theft.
Nine hours ago a suspicious transfer was made from a potential victim for 3520 BTC ($330.7M)
Theft address
bc1qcrypchnrdx87jnal5e5m849fw460t4gk7vz55gShortly after the funds began to be laundered via 6+ instant exchanges and was swapped for XMR causing the XMR price to spike…
— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) April 28, 2025
ZachXBT noted that once the transfer was confirmed, the stolen stash was quickly distributed to six instant exchanges for laundering, ultimately being swapped into Monero. The sudden spike in demand led to a 50% surge in XMR’s price, with the token topping out at $329.
Monero has since given back some of the gains, and at the time of writing, trades at $280.58 for an increase of 23.5% on the 7-day chart.
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