- Gold price rallies more than 1% on Monday as markets are off to a soft start to a week that will feature the Fed interest-rate decision.
- Geopolitical risks from Trump and Israel are spurring investors to head back into Gold.
- Upside risks persist even as sentiment appears to tilt to the downside.
Gold (XAU/USD) rises by more than 1% on Monday as traders flee to safe assets after an eventful weekend on the geopolitical front. The Houthi attack that hit Ben Gurion airport this weekend and Israel’s promise to retaliate while preparing for a broad ground offensive in Gaza are elevating risks again in the region. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that military action might be an option to consider for the US to seize control of Greenland.
Gold’s appeal increases as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on May 7. Over the weekend, Trump expressed his dislike again of the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell. After calling Powell “stiff”, the US President called upon the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members to pressure Chairman Powell to deliver rate cuts.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fedwatch tool, no rate cut is foreseen for this Wednesday. Given the recent Nonfarm Payrolls print and the latest string of data from sectors such as Manufacturing and Services, the US economy is starting to ease, but is not crashing. This could be ammunition for Fed Chairman Powell to push against the political pressure and channel to markets that rates will stay steady for longer until the Fed is comfortable enough to lower them..
Daily digest market movers: Closed off Monday
- Several Asian markets are closed for a public holiday on Monday. The United Kingdom is closed as well.
- In the Gold mining sector, some takeover news with Gold Road Resources agreeing to be bought for $3.7 billion after South African suitor Gold Fields sweetened its offer, concluding a public spat between the joint venture partners, Financial Review reports.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May’s meeting stands at 5.2% against a 94.6% probability of no change. The June meeting sees a 46.6% chance of a rate cut.
Gold Price Technical Analysis: Promises made
Bullion is sprinting higher on Monday, while the Greenback dipped lower at the start of the trading day. The communication vessels synergy between the two assets comes just a few days ahead of the Fed rate decision. Generally, steady or higher rates are bad for Gold as the returns from interests in bonds are more attractive than the return from Gold. However, there might be a breakout in that narrative: if rates remain elevated at current levels, the US economy could weaken further, contract and trigger stagflation or recession, and Gold is a better positioned hedge to withstand that scenario.
On the upside, the R1 resistance at $3,265 has already been broken in a topside test in early trading this Monday. Should some follow-through come, the R2 at $3,337 might be a bit too far off. Rather look for $3,290 (May 1 high) and $3,320 (April 30 high) as intermediary levels nearby for upside resistance.
On the downside, pivot at $3,244 together with the technical level at $3,245 should do the trick and hold. In case Bullion dips further, very close supports are present near $3,219 S1 intraday support and $3,197 S2 intraday support for Monday.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
