EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Remains bullish.
- Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1700 – 1.1650 – 1.1590.
- Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1800 – 1.1880 – 1.2000.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1640, with a target of 1.1820 and a stop loss of 1.1580.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1800, with a target of 1.1600 and a stop loss of 1.1880.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
The EUR/USD is attempting to avoid falling below the 1.1700 support level to prevent stronger selling pressure on the Euro. During yesterday’s session, the most popular currency pair in the forex market retreated to the 1.1682 support level before stabilizing around 1.1720 at the time of writing this analysis. According to forex trading experts’ forecasts, the EUR/USD may decline before resuming its ascent. This week’s forecast model anticipates some stability at lower levels for the EUR/USD exchange rate. After rising to the 1.1829 resistance last week, and with investment through an exclusive free no-deposit bonus, the EUR/USD pair is expected to see a decline to consolidate what had been a notable rise that began to look somewhat extended.
Therefore, a return to the ascending trendline, shown in the chart, is likely in the short term. Accordingly, we are targeting the 1.17 support level this week, based on the view that the rally needs a correction. One-week risk reversals, used to gauge directional bias in the exchange rate, have been reduced to zero, indicating that traders are becoming more cautious about the EUR/USD’s near-term upside.
At the same time, expectations for a long-term rise in the EUR/USD pair have also declined, indicating less conviction in the USD’s bullishness compared to the past two months, raising questions about the possibility of a test of the 1.20 level soon.
US Tariffs Still Impacting Currency Prices
According to recent trading on trusted trading platforms, global stock markets fell and the dollar strengthened at the start of this week’s trading, as investors showed some concern over increasing negative headlines about trade tariffs in recent days. US President Donald Trump stated on “Truth Social” on Sunday: “I am pleased to announce that US tariff letters and/or deals with various countries around the world will be delivered starting at 12:00 PM on Monday, July 7.” For his part, US Treasury Secretary Scott Biesent said: “Lucky partners participating in negotiations will be told that ‘if you don’t make progress, tariffs will bounce back on you on August 1st to the April 2nd level’.”
Trading Tips:
Be cautious about buying the EUR/USD at higher levels and to wait for better clarity regarding the future of the US-European trade dispute.
Meanwhile, Trump has threatened to impose additional tariffs on countries joining the BRICS group, led by China. According to experts, the latest interesting development in these negotiations is Trump’s statement that BRICS countries will face an additional 10% tax. This means that trading the Chinese Yuan, Indian Rupee, and South African Rand will be weaker at the start of the week. All of this suggests that the final tariff settlement, which some investors had hoped for, may never materialize. It is worth noting that tariff uncertainty is supposed to be beneficial for the Euro at the expense of the dollar; this has been the case throughout the year.
However, the instability of this situation at the start of the week’s trading may indicate that this trade is losing its strength, and the US dollar’s attributes as a traditional safe haven are beginning to regain strength. This is mainly because incoming US economic data increasingly shows little economic harm from tariffs and associated uncertainty. Overall, this week will be devoid of economic drivers, leaving financial markets free to obsess over tariff headlines and wonder if they are too bad for the United States. This opens the door for further recovery for the US dollar.
On the technical indicators front, they are in a clearly neutral position according to performance on the daily chart. With the current EUR/USD trading, the neutrality of the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings is evident, currently at 63, and it still has more gains to achieve before reaching overbought territory, as does the MACD indicator. As I mentioned before, expectations for the EUR/USD to move towards the 1.2000 psychological resistance will increase if the bulls first return to stable trading above the 1.1820 resistance. At the same time, the initial break of the uptrend would be for the bears to move the EUR/USD pair first towards the 1.1630 support.
On the data front, and according to the economic calendar, there are no economic releases from the Eurozone today. Finally, all focus will be on the reaction to the announcement of the content of the last Federal Reserve meeting minutes to clarify the outlook for US interest rates in light of Trump’s trade policies and his continuous threats to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
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