EUR/USD Price Analysis: Ranging Under 1.16 Amid Broad Cautious Sentiment

• The EUR/USD price analysis remains subdued under 1.1600 amid deteriorated risk sentiment. 

• Fed’s cautious tone and political chaos in France weigh on the euro.  

• Traders look ahead to the G20 and IMF meetings for clear policy direction. 

The EUR/USD price analysis suggests that the pair remains pressured, trading near 1.1590 after dropping below the 1.1600 threshold amid French political instability and US-China trade tensions. After President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports from November 1, the market sentiment turned cautious. However, his stance softened later on, which eased the fears of a political deadlock. This uncertainty revived the dollar’s safe-haven demand. 

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From Europe, France is in the limelight as President Emmanuel Macron reappointed Sebastian Lecornu as the PM. The updated cabinet prepares to advance a strict fiscal budget through parliament. 

Additionally, market sentiment is cautious amid a no-confidence vote this week. The snap elections add further dread to the situation. The euro is weighed as investors stay wary regarding escalating political instability and sovereign bond stress. 

On the other hand, the US government shutdown persists, delaying key federal payments and economic releases. This reduced economic visibility supports expectations for two more Federal Reserve rate cuts of 25 basis points each during the remaining meetings. 

Overall, the EUR/USD stays in a downtrend amid rising global geopolitical uncertainty. 

EUR/USD Key Daily Events

Today, the market activity remains muted amid the Columbus Day closure. However, traders closely monitor the G20 and IMF meetings for insights into the policy direction. 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Bias Persists Under 1.1600

The EUR/USD 4-hour chart indicates bearish pressure, holding near the 1.1580 level. The price stays below the 20-period MA around 1.1650, the 50-period MA near 1.1700, and the 200-period MA around 1.1730. This pattern signals a broader negative bias for the pair.

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The RSI stays near 40, underscoring a weak bullish trend and low recovery cap unless buyers reclaim control again above the 1.1650 level. Immediate support sits at 1.1550 and extends to 1.1500. On the upside, resistance lies around the 1.1650 and 1.1730 levels. Overall, the pair indicates a bearish trend so long as it trades below the 50-SMA. A sustained break above 1.1730 could shift the trend. 

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