Bitcoin is back above $107,000 this week, after dipping dangerously close to $98,000 just days ago. The correction shook the market and tested the nerves of even the strongest hands. Yet, from a technical perspective, the bullish structure remains intact. Higher-timeframe charts still favor the uptrend — though it was uncomfortably close to breaking.
For traders, this bounce feels like a sigh of relief. The bears seem exhausted, and the market is slowly regaining confidence.
Personal Trade & Sentiment
I’ve been long since $103,800, with my stop-loss now moved to break-even. My target is $117,000, though that might change if price action starts looking weak.
Yesterday, I found myself on a boat in Thailand with one of the most iconic Bitcoin bulls — Didi Taihuttu, the man who famously sold everything for BTC back in 2017. His 100% conviction is contagious. Talking to someone who’s literally bet his life on Bitcoin reminds you why this market still has magic.
The Catalyst: Tariff Dividend Sparks Market Reaction
President Donald Trump’s renewed talk of a $400-billion “tariff dividend” sent ripples across all markets. The plan, which proposes direct cash payments of around $2,000 to most American adults, immediately sparked speculation about liquidity inflows into risk assets — crypto included.
Bitcoin reacted fast. Within hours, BTC climbed above $106,000 and hasn’t looked back since. Traders saw the announcement as a potential stimulus echo: more cash for consumers often means more liquidity chasing returns.
While the plan’s legal and fiscal mechanics are still unclear, sentiment got a serious jolt. Altcoins (like ZEC) joined the rally, and trading volumes jumped across exchanges.
ETF Outflows and Market Reset
Last week, Bitcoin ETF outflows totaled $932 million, continuing the pattern from the previous week’s $946 million. These numbers reflect fading risk appetite after the October crash that wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions.
Despite that, the sell pressure appears to be waning. Institutional flows are stabilizing, and spot demand is quietly rebuilding. Analysts note that maintaining the $100K level could keep the three-year bull market structure intact — even if the pace of future gains slows.
Analysts Still Bullish for Year-End
Wall Street’s outlook remains surprisingly optimistic. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee still targets Bitcoin between $150,000 and $200,000, while Galaxy Research projects a conservative $120,000 by year-end. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood trimmed her 2030 target from $1.5 million to $1.2 million, noting Bitcoin’s growing role as a macro asset in a maturing ecosystem.
The consensus? October’s wipeout likely marked a mid-cycle reset, not the end of the bull. If Bitcoin can close November strong — ideally setting a new all-time high before Thanksgiving — momentum could carry deep into Q1 2026.
Technical Outlook: Still in Bull Territory
From a charting perspective, Bitcoin continues to hold its key support zone near $99,200. A daily close above $107K confirms renewed momentum, while breaking $110K could trigger a run toward $117K — my personal target.
The RSI has reset from overbought levels, and funding rates have normalized, suggesting the market has cooled enough to rally sustainably. Bulls just need to defend that $100K line a little longer.
Why This Recovery Matters
Confidence is everything in crypto. The past month tested that belief system. Between ETF outflows, geopolitical tension, and a macro rollercoaster, fear nearly flipped the narrative. Yet here we are — BTC recovering, sentiment shifting, and analysts revising their forecasts upward again.
It’s a reminder that volatility cuts both ways. When liquidity returns, Bitcoin tends to move fast, and traders who survive the shakeouts are often rewarded.
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Final Thoughts: Hold the Line, Bulls
Bitcoin’s climb from $98K to $107K might seem modest in percentage terms, but psychologically, it’s a big win. The bears failed to break the structure, and bulls are regaining control.
My position remains open — long from $103K, stop at break-even, target $117K. The goal? A new all-time high before Thanksgiving.
If we get that, the market narrative flips entirely, and the late-year melt-up could be wild.
If you enjoyed this blog, check out our guide on Risk Management.
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