EUR/USD’s extended fall last week suggests that rise from 1.1467 has completed at 1.1807 already. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1917. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.1467. Break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1917 to 1.1467 from 1.1807 at 1.1357. ON the upside, above 1.1682 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1807 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1406) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.
In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
