Bullish view
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Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 90,000.
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Add a stop-loss at 75,000.
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Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
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Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 75,000.
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Add a stop-loss at 90,000.
The BTC/USD pair continued its recent rally, reaching its highest point since January 31st as the bull run gained steam. Bitcoin jumped to $81,245, up substantially from the year-to-date low of $60,000.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Accelerates
The BTC/USD pair has been in a strong rebound this month as demand from American investors accelerated. Data shows that the futures open interest has jumped to over $63 billion, up from the year-to-date low of $40 billion.
Similarly, data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued rising this month. They have now added over $1.2 billion in the first three days of the month.
As a result, chances are that these funds will gain more assets than the $1.97 billion added in April. These funds have now added over $59.25 billion since their inception.
Soaring Bitcoin ETF inflows is a sign that American retail and institutional demand continues to rise. It means that they view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset as the Iranian war continues. This war has led to a substantial surge in the prices of crude oil.
The next important catalyst for the BTC/USD pair will be the upcoming US jobs data, which will help the Federal Reserve when making its interest rate decision. Economists expect the upcoming numbers to show that the economy added thousands of jobs in April.
At the same time, market participants are waiting for more progress on the CLARITY Act, which is the second most important pieces of legislation in the crypto industry. A Polymarket poll shows that the probability of the bill passing has jumped to 70%. Several Senate officials believe that the bill will be taken through a markup in the coming days.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has continued rising in the past few weeks, moving from a low of $60,000 in February to the current $81,500.
It has moved above the upper side of the ascending channel, confirming the bullish breakout. Also, Bitcoin has moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
The BTC/USD pair has jumped above the Supertrend indicator and the Parabolic SAR. At the same time, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has soared to 27.6, its highest point since March, a sign that the momentum is continuing.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising, potentially to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 93,000. On the flip side, a move below the support at 75,000 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.
