Bitcoin held near $83,000 on 29 September while Zcash (ZEC) fell about 12%, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.25% and two US data releases due this week.
The data calendar that matters
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes August PCE inflation data on 30 September, and the September employment report follows on 2 October. Traders added to bets on further Fed rate hikes ahead of the PCE print as global stocks fell to a one-week low, with the MSCI ACWI at its lowest since 18 September. The Fed has already lifted its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, a move announced on 16 September.
This weekâs data added to the caution. The Conference Boardâs consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September from 88.6 in August, with the Expectations Index down for a third straight month at 63.6. Average expected 12-month inflation in the survey rose to 6.1%, and the share of respondents expecting higher interest rates rose 5.2 points to 68.4%. August job openings, from the JOLTS survey, were little changed at 7.1 million. Brent crude climbed for a second day to nearly $107 a barrel as hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran faded.
Bitcoinâs levels and the flow picture
Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro), the brokerâs chief market analyst, said in emailed comments that Bitcoin was testing the lower boundary of last weekâs consolidation range around $83K, and that a retest of the $82K region, where peaks formed in May and early September, was entirely to be expected under current conditions. His scenario map: âa sustained return to prices below $80K would be an important signal that the market is not ready to move higher for some time yet. If, however, this consolidation is soon followed by a new bullish momentum, it could send the leading cryptocurrency well above $90K.â
Bitcoin last changed hands at $83,546.74 on 29 September, down 0.04% over 24 hours, with a market cap of $1.68 trillion. It is pulling back from levels above $87,000. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in a net $31 million on 28 September, the smallest daily inflow of the past six sessions, according to Farside Investors data. Total crypto market value stood near $2.86 trillion, and a widely watched sentiment index read 74 out of 100 on Monday, just short of âextreme greedâ.
Zcash gives back its September run
Zcash fell about 12% in a single session, the steepest drop among major tokens, unwinding part of a rally of more than 2,000% this month from lows near $50 to an all-time high above $1,485. Futures liquidations exceeded $1 million in one session as the token faltered. The post-drop price level differs between market data feeds, which put ZEC anywhere between about $1,380 and $1,551. Among other altcoins, SOL and HYPE lost 3% to 4%, DOGE fell 3% and XRP dropped nearly 2%, while Ether was flat.
For positioning into Wednesday, the watch items are the PCE print and its effect on the 10-year yield, and whether ETF inflows hold above or slip below the $31 million pace.
