Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 35.90.
- Set a stop-loss order below 35.70.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 36.25.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 36.20.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 36.30.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 36.00.
Turkish Lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair stabilized at the beginning of the week’s trading, with the dollar trading below the peak recorded last week at 36 Turkish Lira. Despite the declines recorded by the lira in recent months, the Turkish Minister of Finance and Treasury stated that the lira is rising in terms of fundamental value, adding that the Turkish government’s current priority is to control inflation. Also, he emphasized that monetary and fiscal policies are moving in a positive direction and achieving good results, expecting an increase in new investment opportunities in the near future.
According to Simsek, the Turkish currency has depreciated by about 15% in nominal terms during 2024, while rising inflation has led to tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates, attracting investors, especially fixed-income traders. Also, Simsek explained that reducing inflation is currently the primary factor in economic policy, stressing the need for the central bank to continue tightening credit policies to curb consumption and reduce the current account deficit. Since mid-2023, the Turkish Central Bank has adopted a sharp shift in monetary policy, raising the key interest rate to 50%, which contributed to a decline in inflation that peaked at 75% last May.
The Turkish Central Bank is scheduled to hold its next meeting on February 7, with forecasts indicating that inflation may decline to 21% by the end of the year.
In terms of data, the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) revealed that Istanbul tops Turkish cities in foreign currency deposits with a total of 2.5 trillion lira, followed by Ankara with 765.7 billion liras, then Izmir with 289.8 billion liras, and Antalya with 202.9 billion lira. Individual deposits in Istanbul reached 164,000 liras in 2024, compared to 15,324 lira in 2023, an increase of 5.59%. Meanwhile, Batman recorded the highest growth rate of 50.4%, with a total of 9.6 million lira.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair stabilized with the price trading around the 36-lira level, which it exceeded last week. The forecast for the Turkish lira against the dollar indicates continued decline, especially with the pair trading within an ascending price channel that supports the overall upward trend through which the price is trading. The price is also trading above the 50 and 200-day moving averages on both the daily and 4-hour timeframes, which represent strong support levels for the pair.
Currently, every pullback in the pair represents an opportunity to buy again. The pair targets levels of 36 lira and 36.25 lira, respectively.
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