Afghanistan‘s upset win over England on Wednesday sent a warning to Group B leaders South Africa and Australia, as they secured two crucial points to be just one point behind the top-two.
The Afghans now pose a threat to Australia when they face the reigning ODI champions on Friday at the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore.
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Group B will conclude with the match between the now-eliminated England and South Africa on Saturday at the National Stadium in Karachi.
Should Australia or South Africa fail to reach the semi-finals, they would regret the washout of their match in Rawalpindi due to adverse weather conditions.
Here’s a look at the scenarios based on all possible results in the last two matches in Group B:
AUSTRALIA vs AFGHANISTAN
If Afghanistan win: A win for the Afghans will take them through to the semifinals with four points and leave Australia at three points, waiting for the result of the last Group B match between England and South Africa.
If Australia win: The ODI champions will qualify for the semis by taking their points tally to five, while Afghanistan will take the flight back home. This result will leave the match between England and South Africa inconsequential.
In case of a washout: Australia will qualify for the semis with four points, while Afghanistan will move to three points and wait for the result of the game between England and South Africa.
ENGLAND vs SOUTH AFRICA
This match will be of significance in the race to semis only if Australia lose to Afghanistan the previous day or the game is washed out. The below permutations are based on those assumptions.
If England win after Australia’s defeat: The consolation win for Jos Buttler’s team will leave both Australia and South Africa level on three points, and the net run-rate (NRR) will decide who joins Afghanistan in the semis from Group B.
If England win after Australia vs Afghanistan washout: Australia will go through with four points, while NRR will decide the second semifinalist between South Africa and Afghanistan, both of who will end up with three points.
If South Africa win after Australia’s defeat: The Proteas will enter the semis with five points, alongside Afghanistan with four points.
If South Africa win after Australia vs Afghanistan washout: South Africa will move to five points and reach the semis along with Australia on four points.
In case of a washout after Australia’s defeat: South Africa will be level with Afghanistan at four points and the two teams will progress to the semifinals.
If both the above matches are washed out, then South Africa and Australia will move to the semis with four points each while Afghanistan will be stalled on three points.
