Potential Signal
- If the EUR/USD pair manages to break below the 1.08 level on at least a 4 hour chart close, then I would short this market and aim for the 200 Day EMA, which is currently near the 1.0660 level.
- I would have a stop loss at the 1.0833 level.
During Thursday trading we have seen the Euro drop quite a bit against the US dollar, but quite frankly we’ve also seen a lot of buyers come in to pick up the currency. Remember, a lot of this will come down to the interest rates in the bond markets, and Germany has recently seen its interest rates skyrocket as it plans on spending a ton of money to stimulate the economy and do heavy lifting with the military. All things being equal, that means that a larger supply of Bunds will hit the market, and that means that they will have to pay higher interest rates. The knock on effect of course is that the Euro offers more in the way of interest rate swaps at the end of every day, and it looks like that is what the market is paying attention to more than anything else.
Technical Analysis
When I look at the EUR/USD technical analysis, I noticed several things at one point. The first thing of course is that we are a bit overbought, so the pullback was probably something that this needed anyway. There was a blurb on the news about Pres. Donald Trump levying a 200% tariff on EU alcohol in response to a 25% tariff on US whiskey. Quite frankly, that was probably just the excuse that people needed more than anything else. That being said, I think at this point in time we are going to see a lot of sideways action in this area, and I think it’s going to be difficult to break above the 1.0950 level. If we can break above that level, then the Euro will continue to go higher, perhaps reaching the 1.12 level.
On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 1.08 level, that would be a very negative turn of events and could open up the Euro for deeper correction, perhaps dropping down to the 200 Day EMA. It’ll be interesting to see how the day finishes, but as things stand right now it looks like the Euro is at least trying to recover a bit.
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