Lower depths have been sustained in the EUR/USD during October, and November may prove no easier for speculators who continue to persist with bets looking for upside momentum.
Choppy trading conditions pestered the EUR/USD in the month of October. And one thing was abundantly clear, the EUR/USD was not able to sustain a substantial trend upwards. The currency pair is near the 1.16280 ratio at this moment and is showing little in the way of signs of suddenly reversing higher with a clear spark. While higher elements in the EUR/USD were seen in the middle of October, values quickly faded back to lower realms.
The U.S Federal Reserve cut it interest rate yet again last night, but the 25 basis point move lower was already factored into the EUR/USD. The currency pair reacted with a lack of enthusiasm regarding the Fed’s FOMC Statement too, this because Fed Chairman Jerome Powell refused to suggest that another interest rate cut will take place in December.
U.S Government Shutdown and Lack of Clarity
While the broad financial markets globally are having a moment in the sunshine regarding equity indices upwards momentum, Forex including the EUR/USD remains in a rather choppy state of flux. Financial institutions continue to treat the USD cautiously. The EUR/USD has been under pressure since producing highs around the 1.17320 vicinity on the 17th of October.
While it still feels like the EUR/USD is oversold, financial institutions are clearly not comfortable trying to speculate on higher values over the mid-term. The Federal Reserve’s lack of clarity regarding interest rate policy to come due to the U.S government shutdown and lack of economic data is not helping. And day traders who believe the EUR/USD must get stronger should probably remain cautious. Choppy trading in October clearly produced a rather incremental ability to move lower.
Speculative Reactions to Lows in the EUR/USD
As the month of October draws to a close the EUR/USD is showing that strong headwinds are pushing the currency pair backwards. The EUR/USD went to a low near the 1.15450 vicinity in the middle of October, this in the wake of President Trump’s loud tariff threats against China which caused volatility to rip through the financial markets. While the EUR/USD recovered from those depths, current price action cannot be looked at as positive for the EUR.
- Choppy results in the EUR/USD have been seen across the board in Forex, so traders of the EUR/USD should understand that difficult conditions are widespread.
- Traders need to remember that just because they feel something should be different doesn’t mean it will happen.
- Looking for upside in the EUR/USD should be done cautiously. For the time being choppy conditions are likely to remain strong in the currency pair.
- Financial institutions who believed the Fed would admit another interest rate cut is a certainty in December are likely disappointed today, and this has no doubt caused some selling momentum in the EUR/USD early today too.
- Where will support ratios start to prove durable and when will an upwards trend develop are dangerous questions for the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Outlook for November 2025:
Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.15700 to 1.18100
The U.S government shutdown seems destined to continue a while longer. The fact that the shutdown has lasted more than 4 weeks is a growing story. But up to now not enough pain has been felt by either political party to end the stubborn closure caused by political games and fiscal concerns. The EUR/USD however is likely moving more on cautiousness because of Federal Reserve uncertainty. However, if the shutdown ends this might help the EUR/USD gain.
Many financial institutions will have to remain conservative over the next couple of weeks as they try to decipher the month ahead. If a lack of clarity regarding U.S data persists the EUR/USD may simply remain within what are considered the lower elements of its price range, this since highs were produced on the 17th of September and values went over 1.18800 momentarily. The EUR/USD should be treated carefully by day traders in November and technical traders may continue to have an advantage if they simply play a speculative game of wagering on lows and highs.
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