- The Gold weekly forecast remains moderately supported by expectations of Fed easing.
- Uptick in US yields and improved risk appetite capped the gold gains.
- Markets await the FOMC rate decision and Fed Chair commentary, along with labor market data, next week.
The gold price remained softer last week but managed to stay above the key $4,200 mark, as the weaker US dollar provided a floor under the gold price. Although the price climbed to 6-week highs near $4,260, moderate risk appetite and mixed US data capped further gains.
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What happened last week
Gold’s resilience primarily stemmed from a softer US dollar and lower Treasury yields amid weak labor market data, especially a significant drop in ADP employment figures. Markets now anticipate a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in the December 9-10 meeting.
The dovish rate outlook, combined with broader global uncertainty, revived investor interest in gold’s safe-haven status. Still, an uptick in US yields limited the gold’s rally, while the Fed’s potential easing supported it.
The Friday US PCE inflation report for September met estimates at 0.2%, showing signs of cooling inflation. Meanwhile, the UoM Consumer Sentiment exceeded estimates, lending adequate support to the dollar by the end of the week.
What could happen next week?
Heading into next week, the gold market’s path will depend on how markets react to U.S. macroeconomic data, particularly labor market data and the Fed Chair’s press conference. Moreover, the global risk sentiment remains essential, especially following renewed concerns about Russia and Ukraine. The following three scenarios could emerge for gold:
- If the Fed delivers a 25-bps rate cut and signals a dovish path for 2026, prices could surge to recent levels around $4,260 and even higher.
- If the Fed remains cautious, easing but signaling fewer rate cuts in 2026, gold could fall to $4,150.
- In a risk-off environment, characterized by weaker equities and heightened geopolitical tension, gold could move disproportionately higher, potentially surpassing $4,300.
Structural factors, such as central bank accumulation, rising global debt levels, and inflows into gold-linked financial products, will maintain the medium-term bullish view.
Gold Key Events Next Week
Below are the high-impact events next week:
- US JOLTs Job Openings
- US Weekly ADP Employment
- FOMC Rate Decision
- Fed Chair Press Conference
- US Employment Cost Index
- US Jobless Claims
Gold Weekly Technical Forecast: Bearish Flag Pattern
The daily chart for gold has formed a bearish flag pattern. A breakout of the lower trendline could attract more sellers and look to complete the pattern at $3,800. However, several key support levels emerge in between, making the bearish path bumpy.
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Meanwhile, the daily RSI stays above 60.0, suggesting room for more gains. While staying above the key MAs, the odds of upside remain high, with eyes on $4,300 ahead of all-time highs around $4,380.
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