Donald and Melania Trump are eating breakfast together at Mar-a-Lago on the morning of January 21, 2029. At noon on the previous day, Gretchen Whitmer was sworn in as the forty-eighth president of the United States.
Donald Trump to Melania: “How much did our family spend last year on food, clothing, furniture, and other stuff for Mar-a-Lago?”
Melania: “About two million dollars.”
Donald: “How much stuff – tangible stuff, stuff with mass, stuff you can touch – did our family sell?”
Melania: “Well, we sold only that used golf cart for $5,000.”
Donald: “This is bad. Very bad. It’s a family emergency. The people we trade with are taking advantage of our kindness. I’m so disappointed in them. They let me down. It ends now!”
Melania: “What do you mean?”
Donald: “Simple. From now on, we won’t buy any stuff – no food, no clothes, no golf carts, no anything – from anyone who doesn’t buy at least an equal amount of stuff from us. I’m tired of being ripped off!”
Melania: “What should I do?”
Donald: “Not much at the moment. I’ll handle it. I’m the master artist of the deal, you know! Just bring me a list of the merchants that we’ve been buying all this stuff from and the amount of money that we spent last year on what we bought from each of them.”
Later that day, Melania brings the requested list to Donald, who studies it carefully.
After several minutes, Donald asks Melania to arrange a meeting first thing in the morning with the butcher from whom the Trumps have been purchasing their meat.
The next morning, the butcher – conveniently named “Butcher” – is escorted into the former president’s office at Mar-a-Lago.
Trump: “Have a seat and take a look at this document.”
Butcher (studying the document): “It’s a record of all the beef, pork, and lamb I sold to you last year.”
Trump (handing another sheet of paper to Mr. Butcher): “That’s right. Now look at this list.”
Butcher: “It’s a blank piece of paper.”
Trump: “Right again. That blank piece of paper shows how much stuff you bought from us last year!”
Butcher (looking confused): “I’m sorry. I don’t follow. Was I supposed to buy something from you?”
Trump: “Don’t play innocent with me. All last year, you knowingly ripped us off by selling stuff to us, taking our money week after week, but you never bought anything from us in return! Never intended to! You got our money, we got only your meat. A real trick!”
Butcher (looking more confused): “You voluntarily bought all the meat I sold to you. How’d I rip you off?”
Trump: “And don’t play dumb with me either. You and I are businessmen. What’s the mark of a good deal? Money rolling in! Money rolling out more than rolling in means losses. Out of the goodness of our hearts we trusted you. And how did you treat us? You took our money and didn’t return it by buying stuff from us. That’s very bad behavior!”
Butcher: “I have three kids in college. The single biggest chunk of my spending is on tuition. Do you have at Mar-a-Lago some college instructors who I can hire?”
Trump: “Stuff. You gotta buy stuff – things you can touch. College instruction is a service. It doesn’t count.”
Butcher: “What stuff do you sell? I thought Mar-a-Lago is a residence, not a factory or a store.”
Trump: “Doesn’t matter what you call it. Mar-a-Lago is an economic entity. My family is an economic entity. We can’t survive if we keep getting ripped off like this.”
Butcher (glancing around the room): “Look, Mr. President, let’s say I want to buy those gold cherubs there on your mantel piece, I….”
Trump (interrupting): “They’re yours for 250 grand.”
Butcher: “That’s just about how much money you spent last year buying meat from my shop.”
Trump: “Right! We’d be even.”
Butcher: “But if I bought those cherubs at that price, I’d have to pull my kids out of college. I can’t afford it.”
Trump: “Your problem; not mine. Here’s the bottom line: We’ll stop doing business with you until you start doing the same amount of business with us.”
Butcher: “Sir, I already do the same amount of business with you as you do with me: I supply you every year with about $250,000 worth of meat and in exchange you pay that amount of money to me.”
Trump: “I said don’t play dumb! You know what I mean: We won’t buy any meat from you unless you buy at least an equal amount of stuff from us. Now scram. I have to meet my tailor.”
The tailor – conveniently named Taylor – is escorted into Trump’s office.
Trump: “Please be seated and look at this list.”
Taylor (studying the document): “It’s a record of all the pants, shirts, and coats that I made for you and your sons last year. $50,000 worth.”
Trump (handing another sheet of paper to Mr. Taylor): “Correct. Now look at this list.”
Taylor: “It’s blank.”
Trump: “Also correct. It’s a list of all the things you bought last year from my family. What’s your excuse?”
Taylor (befuddled): “Excuse? I don’t follow.”
Trump: “It’s simple: You’re ripping us off. We kindly buy $50,000 worth of stuff from you and you buy nothing from us. What gives you the right to mistreat us this way?!”
Trump then delivers to Taylor the same ultimatum that he delivered to Butcher.
Trump spends the rest of the day meeting with other merchants who supply Mar-a-Lago, from Melania’s dressmaker to grocers to the owner of the lumberyard that supplied the wood for a new addition to the mansion.
At dinner, Trump proudly announces that he’s tired of being a nice guy – that from this moment forward no one at Mar-a-Lago will buy anything from anyone who doesn’t buy at least an equal amount of stuff – “stuff you can actually touch!” – from Mar-a-Lago.
Melania: “Uhm…. We don’t produce a lot of tangible things to sell. Your company pretty much sells only services. How do you expect the likes of Mr. Butcher and Mr. Taylor to buy stuff from us if what we produce is only services?”
Donald: “I offered Butcher those cherubs. He refused. I think he’s trying to bargain the price down.”
Melania: “Look, sweetheart, if we stop buying food, clothing, and other stuff from merchants who don’t buy stuff from us, we’ll starve, and we’ll never again wear a stitch of new clothes.”
Donald: “I wrote The Art of the Deal, right? And I’m a rich businessman. I know what I’m doing. Even better, our household has huge spending power; those merchants will kill to access it. What sellers can resist buying access to it?! It’s just a matter of time before they come begging to strike trade deals with Mar-a-Lago that bind each of them to buy as much from us as we buy from each of them. You’ll see. We’ll be even richer!”
….
Several months later, Mar-a-Lago’s many cupboards, fridges, and freezers all run bare. And the water to the magnificent mansion is cut off because Trump’s stopped paying the water company for water because that company refused to buy as much stuff from Mar-a-Lago as Mar-a-Lago bought water from that company.
One of the world’s richest families is living in poverty.
….
If the above tale sounds fantastically unrealistic, that’s because it is. No one – literally no one, rich or poor, not even Donald Trump – would even think about attempting to conduct his or her household’s economic affairs as described above. And yet, Trump is actually trying to conduct America’s economic affairs in a similar way. The economic ‘logic,’ such as it is, that motivates his invocation of emergency powers to impose tariffs rests on Trump’s belief that US goods trade deficits with individual countries is an economic emergency, and evidence that foreign exporters or governments have long gotten away with economically ripping America off.
If it would make economic sense for Trump to run Mar-a-Lago in the fantastical way portrayed above, then Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs might make economic sense for America. But if it makes no sense – if it is downright crazy – for Trump to run Mar-a-Lago as described above, then his “Liberation Day” tariffs are the height of economic insanity. And they are.
