- The euro edged higher early Thursday but remains erratic around the 50-day EMA.
- Broader weakness persists, with downside levels at 1.16–1.14 in focus unless a break above 1.17 sparks momentum in this volatile, indecisive market.
The euro rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. The 50-day EMA is sitting right here as well, and this is an area that will be watched very closely as the 50-day EMA has been important more than once. Ultimately, this is a scenario where traders will do what they can to sort out whether the uptrend is real or if we are going to continue to see negativity.
Ultimately, this is a market where traders are just kicking around back and forth with no real idea as to what to do next.
I Still Look for 1.14 Eventually
Ultimately, this is a market that is probably reaching the 1.14 level. But I also would recognize that this is a market that will be choppy on the way down. If the market were to break down from here, the 1.16 level would be an area that could end up being a target and a barrier that, once we break through, then we go looking to the 1.15 level, followed by the 1.14 level. I have no interest in buying the euro, at least not yet, but if we were to break above the 1.17 level, then you could have a little bit of momentum coming into the picture.
This is a market that continues to be choppy and noisy. And I think that’s the one thing that you’re going to have to take away from this: volatility is going to be a major driver. Nonetheless, we are still pretty weak looking from a longer-term standpoint, although there are places where the US dollar is much stronger than against the euro.
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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
