Ryanair fares to rise as passenger numbers forecast to surge

Ryanair expects fares to rise by more than previously forecast due to “strong demand” as it predicts a big increase in passenger numbers.

The budget airline said prices would climb by up to 9%, compared to the 7% rise it predicted in November, as it estimates traveller numbers to grow by almost 208 million this year.

Releasing its quarterly results, the company said its average fares rose 4% to €44 (£38) over the three-month period to the end of December.

But the firm reported a steep drop in quarterly profits after being fined €256m (£222m) by Italy’s competition watchdog for “abusing its dominant position” by blocking travel agencies from accessing its services.

The airline posted pre-tax profits of €24.4m for the three months to December, an 83% drop from the €143.7m seen in the same period the previous year.

However, its total revenue rose 9% to €3.21bn as the number of passengers grew 6% to 47.5 million.

Strong bookings over the October half-term school holidays, as well as the Christmas and new year period – all of which factor in to its “fare outlook” – contributed towards the growth in traveller numbers, the airline said.

In December, the Italian Competition Authority said the airline had “put in place an elaborate strategy” making it harder for online and traditional travel agencies to buy Ryanair flights through its website.

It said the airline’s strategy blocked or hindered purchases, or made them “economically or technically burdensome”, particularly when flights were combined with services from other airlines or with tourism and insurance products.

But Ryanair said the fine was “baseless” and it was “confident” it would be overturned on appeal.

It argued that its model of selling flights directly to customers was competitive because it means fares are lower, so consumers benefit.

Ryanair made headlines last week after boss Michael O’Leary rejected the idea of using Elon Musk’s Starlink technology to provide wi-fi on flights.

It resulted in an online spat between the two leaders, which the firm said had led to a slight rise in bookings, thanking Musk for the publicity.

During an investor call on Monday, O’Leary said full-year net profit could reach as much as €2.23bn.

But he said this forecast remained “exposed to adverse external developments” including the possibility of conflict escalation in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Ryanair is aiming to grow passenger numbers to 300 million by 2034, in part with a new fleet of 300 Boeing 737 Max 10 planes.

O’Leary told analysts that it was more likely that the first delivery of 15 planes, which is expected in spring 2027, would be “early rather than late”.

Boeing has in recent years struggled to deliver new planes on time, following a series of crises around quality and standards.

In 2024, a major strike by factory workers slowed down production in Boeing’s Seattle heartlands.

At the time Ryanair, which is one of the manufacturer’s biggest customers, said those delays pushed up its fares due to capacity constraints.

But O’Leary told reporters on Monday that he expected the order of Max 10 aircraft to be delivered on time.

The Max-10 model is more fuel efficient and has 21% more seats than the airline’s fleet of 737 Next Generation planes.

Boeing is to publish its fourth quarter results on Tuesday.