Bitcoin Price Falls Ahead Of CPI Data Amid Rate Cut Uncertainty

The Bitcoin price slipped a fraction ahead of key US inflation data tomorrow with traders increasingly uncertain over the likelihood of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

BTC slid to as low as $102,457.33 in the past 24 hours but has recovered to trade at $104,555.73 as of 5:52 a.m. EST. More than $317 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass.

BTC price (Source: CoinMarketCap)

That’s left traders focused on the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report to be released tomorrow. It will be a key gauge of what to expect from the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.

Market expectations for a December rate cut have weakened, with the CME FedWatch tool showing the odds dropping to 67.9%, from 85% last week, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that additional cuts are “not a done deal.”

A higher-than-expected inflation reading could dampen hopes for further easing, while softer inflation may revive risk appetite across crypto markets. 

POWELL SAYS A RATE CUT IN DECEMBER IS NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION.

BEARISH STATEMENT… pic.twitter.com/XvrRQQavr6

— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) October 29, 2025

Adding to the uncertainty is a Wall Street Journal report earlier today that said the US central bank has become increasingly divided over a December rate cut. 

Contract asking what the Fed’s decision will be in December (Source: Polymarket)

Traders on the decentralized predictions market Polymarket remain optimistic that there will be a rate cut next month. In a contract asking what the Fed’s decision will be, Polymarket traders have placed 72% odds that there will be a 25 basis points cut. 

Bitcoin Price Tests Major Technical Barrier As Morgan Stanley Says Take Gains

From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin price is trying to overcome a major barrier at the $105,795 resistance level.

Daily chart for WBTC/USD (Source: GeckoTerminal)

That price level is confluent with the 9 and 20 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are currently acting as dynamic resistance levels for BTC. As such, flipping the resistance level into support might lead to a bullish reversal of the market leader’s current trend. This could then result in a climb to as high as $110,830 in the short term.

However, failure to close above the $105,795 resistance level within the next 48 hours might result in a pullback to the nearest support at $99,680.

Technical indicators on the daily chart, such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), show that buyers are slowly making a comeback, but they still need to overcome the $105,795 barrier before they can ignite a rally.

While Bitcoin tries to overcome a major technical barrier, Morgan Stanley investment strategist Denny Galindo has urged investors to take profits in preparation for a crypto winter. 

“We are in the fall season right now,” he said. “Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.”

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