- The EUR/USD outlook remains steady under 1.1750, with eyes on the US CPI and the ECB rate decision.
- A softer dollar ahead of data keeps the EUR/USD downside limited.
- Weaker German IFO data and bearish pin bars continue to cap the gains, keeping the pair within a broad range.
The EUR/USD price is trading under 1.1750 as markets wait for the US CPI data for November, due today. The release carries extra weight as it excludes October figures and does not include month-on-month data for November following the government shutdown. As a result, investors are focused on the annual headline and core readings.
Headline CPI is expected to rise to 3.1% YoY from 3.0%, while core inflation is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.0%. Some analysts see a risk of a mildly stronger headline number due to higher energy prices. However, underlying inflation is expected to stay steady. With limited detail in the report, even small deviations from forecasts could move markets and reshape expectations for Fed policy.
The US dollar remains soft ahead of the data, with the Dollar Index (DXY) holding below 98.50 after a brief rebound earlier in the week. Recent comments from Fed officials have not shifted the broader outlook. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said growth should remain solid into 2026, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated support for further easing next year. This leaves the dollar exposed if inflation does not show renewed momentum.
The EUR/USD pair slipped toward 1.1700 on Wednesday but recovered most of the losses during the US session, ending near unchanged. The pair continues to hold above recent highs, pointing to consolidation rather than a reversal.
On the euro side, softer Eurozone inflation and weak German sentiment have limited upside. Germany’s IFO business climate index declined for a second month, highlighting ongoing growth concerns. Even so, the European Central Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at its December meeting, with no strong signal to ease further next year. President Christine Lagarde’s comments are unlikely to shift expectations.
Near-term direction for EUR/USD depends on the CPI outcome. A softer reading would pressure the dollar and support the pair, while firmer inflation could trigger a pullback.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Stuck Around 20-MA
The EUR/USD price wobbles near the 20-period MA at 1.1740. The two consecutive bearish pin bars on the chart reveal selling pressure, but the 50-period MA near 1.1700 provides adequate support. Hence, the price is expected to oscillate within the 1.1700 and 1.1800 levels.
A breakout of 1.1700 could find support near 100- and 200-period MAs at 1.1660 and 1.1610, respectively. Meanwhile, an upside breakout of 1.1800 could gather buying traction to aim for yearly highs around the 1.1900 area.
