- The EUR/USD price analysis shows the euro recovering from some of its losses.
- The euro gained as traders awaited the outcome of a meeting between Trump and Putin.
- The US PPI increased by 0.9%, beating estimates of 0.2%.
The EUR/USD price analysis shows the euro recovering from some of its losses as traders watch peace talks between Trump and Putin. Meanwhile, the dollar gained on Thursday after data revealed hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation in July, leading to a drop in Fed rate cut bets.
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The euro gained as traders awaited the outcome of a meeting between Trump and Putin. The US president has threatened severe consequences for Russia if it does not work to end the war in Ukraine. Progress towards a peace deal would be bullish for the euro.
Meanwhile, the dollar found some support on Thursday after surprising wholesale inflation numbers. According to data, the US PPI increased by 0.9%, beating estimates of 0.2%. Producer prices are an indicator of future consumer prices. Therefore, policymakers might get cautious again about rate cuts.
The report dashed hopes for a 50-bps rate cut in September. However, market participants are still expecting a smaller rate cut. The labor market has slowed down significantly and consumer prices were softer than expected.
EUR/USD key events today
- US core retail sales m/m
- US retail sales m/m
- US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment
- US preliminary UoM inflation expectations
EUR/USD technical price analysis: Shallow uptrend points to weaker momentum
On the technical side, the EUR/USD price trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. Since bulls took charge near the 1.1400 support level, they have maintained the trend, making higher highs and lows. However, it has not respected the SMA as a support line. Instead, the price has punctured the line several times, showing it is a shallow trend.
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Moreover, the punctures show that bears are quite strong and keep challenging the uptrend. Additionally, although the price has made a higher high, the RSI has made a lower one, indicating weaker bullish momentum. At the same time, the RSI has made lower lows while the price has made higher ones. This is a sign that bears are getting stronger. Nevertheless, since the price is above the SMA, it might climb to a new high. Therefore, EUR/USD might retest the 1.1750 resistance level.
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