Markets spent the week whipsawing between conflicting economic signals, leaving most major currencies trapped in choppy, directionless trading as traders struggled to find conviction.
The dollar opened Monday nursing losses from softer inflation expectations, only to stage a brief comeback Tuesday after disappointing retail sales initially triggered selling. Wednesday’s blockbuster jobs report—130,000 payrolls versus just 40,000 expected—sparked another round trip as the headline beat clashed with massive downward revisions showing 2025 added just 181,000 jobs instead of the initially reported 584,000. Friday’s cooler-than-expected CPI capped the week with fresh volatility, pushing inflation expectations back toward earlier Fed rate cuts.
Beyond US data, Japan’s political drama dominated currency flows as Prime Minister Takaichi’s landslide election victory triggered intervention warnings that kept the yen bid all week. Meanwhile, spreading fears about AI-driven disruption sent equity markets tumbling Thursday, briefly lifting safe-haven demand before Friday’s risk-on reversal.
The result? Most currencies finished mixed with marginal weekly changes, reflecting a market caught between competing narratives about growth, inflation, and central bank policy paths. Only the yen and franc managed clear directional moves, while the rest churned sideways through five days of headline-driven noise.
