USD/JPY’s fall from 157.88 short term top extended lower last week, but lost momentum after hitting 154.33. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the downside, below 154.33 will target 55 D EMA (now at 153.11). Firm break there will bring deeper fall to 150.90 cluster (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 157.88 at 151.00). On the upside, though, break of 156.17 resistance will indicate that the pullback has completed and bring retest of 157.88 high.
In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resumption. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term.
